The Impact of EMU on Inflation Expectations

This paper analyses the impact of the monetary regime change from the Bundesbank to the ECB on inflation expectations. In the theoretical part, the Barro-Gordon model is used to derive the potential effect of a new central bank on inflation and inflation expectations. The econometric investigation is based on a flexible specification of expectation formation which allows both for rational and adaptive elements. The results indicate that the monetary regime change did not have a strong and lasting impact on the formation of inflation expectations and that the credibility of both central banks is not perceived to differ significantly anymore. JEL Classification Numbers: E 58, E 31     

The short- and long-run relationship between the illicit drug business and terrorism

We study the effect of the illicit drug business on terrorism for a sample of 58 countries for the 1984–2007 period. Consistent with the notion of a crime-terror nexus, we find that in the long run, higher drug prices are associated with more terrorism. In the short run, however, increases in drug prices lead to less terrorism, potentially because terrorist groups respond to higher drug business attractiveness by prioritizing criminal over terrorist activity.     

Fads and Trends in Business and Information Systems Engineering and Information Systems Research – A Comparative Literature Analysis

The business and information systems engineering (BISE) discipline, dominating in the German-speaking countries, where it is called“Wirtschaftsinformatik”, is currently undergoing a phase of increasing internationalization and the U.S.-based Information Systems (IS) discipline is often considered an ideal. Studies show that BISE has often dealt with fads in the past – for IS there are no findings reporting on the diffusion of fads. The objective of the paper is to close this research gap. The authors conducted a literature analysis to investigate the development of topics and terms in BISE and IS from 1994 to 2007. Titles, abstracts and keywords of 2,564 articles in three BISE journals and 5,647 articles in five IS journals were analyzed. The results show that BISE is topically more diverse and concrete than IS. In addition, the rate of fads is higher in BISE than IS. Being engaged in fads is not necessarily negative – rather, it may considerably contribute to the relevance of research. However, it has to be considered that an overly intense orientation on fads may negatively influence a cumulative research progress. Hence, the authors conclude that for BISE and IS, which both have a theoretical and pragmatic mission, a balanced ratio of short- and long-term topics seems appropriate.     

Tax evasion, tax avoidance and shadow economy: introduction

This introduction summarizes the content of the papers published in this volumes.     

Shadow economies around the world: novel insights, accepted knowledge, and new estimates

This paper is a first attempt to study the impact of enforcement on the shadow economy. Using a MIMIC model, we find that a higher share of sub-national government employment and the aspiration of public employees to follow rules significantly deter shadow economic activities. Our results also confirm previous findings: Increased burdens of taxation and regulation as well as the state of the “official” economy are important determinants of the shadow economy. The estimated weighted average informality in 162 countries around the world, including developing, Eastern European, Central Asian, and high-income OECD countries, is 17.1% of “official” GDP.     

Going for the Wallet? Rule-of-Law Conditionality in the Next EU Multiannual Financial Framework

EU funds that promote economic convergence will hardly reach their objective in countries sliding toward a system that lacks effective checks and balances.The idea of financially sanctioning EU Member States has been advocated for some time and took shape concretely in May 2018. The European Commission presented a draft regulation to sanction Member States with “generalised deficiencies” in the rule of law, which was presented together with a comprehensive proposal for the next MFF.     

Implications of the US Tax Reform for Transatlantic FDI

On 22 December 2017 President Trump signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. This corporate tax reform can be considered the most significant amendment of the US corporate tax code since 1986. Besides the reduction of the corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21%, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act entails features like a switch from worldwide income taxation to territorial taxation, as well as immediate deductions for certain assets. This leads to a substantial improvement for the US in global tax competition. In this paper, we analyse the effects of the US tax reform on FDI flows between Europe and the US. We find that European high-tax countries in particular will suffer from a net outflow of FDI.